Armchair Idiots: fantasy

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CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUP! Larry Johnson had his best game of the season in week 12. He ran for 107 yards on 22 carries. Even though he was running against a terrible Cleveland Browns defense, this performance displayed the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has been effectively run blocking all season.

Cedric Benson was able to gain 120 yards on the ground in facing a stout Baltimore Ravens defense in week 5. At that juncture the Ravens defense had only allowed three 100 yard performances in their prior 40 games. He ran for 141 yards in week 2, playing an impressive Green Bay Packer defense. His most productive game came against his former team, the Chicago Bears. He had 189 yards on 37 carries.

Larry Johnson’s fantasy value should be high moving forward. Rookie running back Bernard Scott is listed as having turf toe. It’s an injury that hinders a running backs ability to cut. LaDainian Tomlinson had that same injury last year. It severely hampered his production. Cedric Benson is coming back from a hip injury. Will his body be able to handle his bruising running style? This could potentially become Larry Johnson’s backfield very soon. Let’s assume Cedric Benson remains healthy and the #1 back in Cincinnati. Come week 16 the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Cincinnati. Championship weekend for most fantasy leagues! Larry Johnson is going to be salivating at the opportunity to make a statement in this game. I’m going to bet the Bengals will give him the majority of carries that weekend. This matchup should have fantasy owners drooling.

Fantasy Payoff Picks Even if you are not at the top of your league, let's feel good about some of the high draft picks you may have selected this year.

The Tennessee Titans players have been lousy this year. Chris Johnson has been the exception. He is a home run style runner. Johnson has had runs of 30 or more yards in 7 of 9 games this year. His 6.4 yards per carry average on 170 attempts is a testament to his explosive running style. Johnson will be a top three pick in fantasy drafts come the 2010 season.

It is safe to state that Tom Brady has officially returned to his expected form. He has had a career best four straight three-hundred yard games. In those games Brady has thrown 13 TDs. That is a TD/INT ratio just better than 3:1. His upcoming matchups are: NYJ, @NO, @MIA, CAR, @BUF, JAC, @HOU. Fantasy owners will continue smiling in the coming weeks.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been on fire his last four games. He had workhouse numbers in week 6, getting 33 carries for 133 and 3 TDs. Week 7 he was on a bye. In week 8 at Tennessee he accumulated a season high 177 yards on 8 carries! Drew found pay dirt twice that week. Week 9 brought 29 carries for 97 yards and 1 TD versus Kansas City. Week 10 was against a tough Jets defense, 24 carries for 123 yards and 1 TD. Drew would have had another TD at the end of the game but he took an intentional knee.

Aaron Rodgers has more than lived up to fantasy owner’s expectations. Despite having to run for his life every week he has produced. Rodgers has thrown double digit TDs six times this year. He is out scoring Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, & Drew Brees in most fantasy leagues. He was a solid second or third round pick.

Weeks 7, 8, & 10 have brought good fortune to Stephen Jackson owners. Jackson rushed for 134 yards against Indianapolis in week 7. Week 8 at Detroit was even better. Jackson posted his first TD of the season to go with 149 yards. He was able to find pay dirt again in week 10 and ran for 131 yards against New Orleans. Jackson has run incredibly hard all year for a terrible team. Larry Johnson should try to emulate himself after Mr. Jackson.

Reggie Wayne is coming off a 10 catch, 126 yard, 2 TD Sunday evening. He is quite simply as good as any receiver in the NFL. Wayne will once again finish the season as a top five fantasy scorer among receivers.

Under The Hoodie - There Is No Doubt It Was The Right Choice There has been an inordinate amount of piling on the Patriots coasch over the last few days since Bill Belichick went for for it on fourth down on his own 28 against the Colts. It is very easy to question this call, and it makes great sports radio and blog fodder. However let's not pile on, but think about why, and talk about how a calculated risk is not such a bad move.

No doubt the Patriots were in control of this game. Also no doubt that the New England Defense was on for the first three quarters. Another no doubt is that this is not even an issue if Maroney doesn't fumble in the Red Zone.

There was no doubt that the Colts made an adjustment. There is also no doubt that Manning can score quickly and efficiently at any time. There was no doubt that the Patriots defense was tired from fighting out the first three quarters.

Most would agree that Tom Brady and the offense could get 2 yards. You and I both would bet on it, over them not making it, any day of the week. The Patriots were going to have to play defense no matter what. A long field with a tired defense could create an easy big play for the Colts and Manning. We all know that the Red Zone shortens the field and makes it more difficult for any offense. No doubt Belichick thought of this and gambled. It's not that he didn't trust his defense, he chose the gamble of putting them on a shorter field and thinking they had to stop the Colts anyway.

Brady passed to Faulk, executed the play, the ball was bobbled, and in the NFL that is enough time to not make the first down. Was it a crazy gamble? For any other team yes, but not Patriots. Belichick felt his best chance to win the game was with his offense. The idea that his defense is upset over the call is silly. The NFL is not high school, it is professional football. His gamble did not work, oh well. Sometimes your gut is what you have to trust. It has gotten Belichick to the top and is a necessary tool for a great coach. I would rather have a coach that takes a chance on what he feels is his best chance to win, than just going with conventional wisdom. That's why most teams are average, they take no chances and have no balls.

There is a ton of season left. No one knows where or how this game will affect the Patriots. No matter who you are, you do not want to play the Patriots in the playoffs at home or on the road.

They will get another chance at the Colts.

FANTASY SNAPSHOT - Running Back Updates There were some key RB injuries in week 10.

Cincinnati Bengal Cedric Benson left the game with a strained hip flexor. Rookie Bernard Scott filled in with 13 carries for 33 yards. He also had 1 catch that went for 21 yards. Not a very impressive stat line. But he was running against the Steelers. The Bengals play the Oakland Raiders in week 11. The Bengals say Benson will be ready to go week 11. Provided that changes Scott becomes a great fantasy play.

Seattle Seahawks Julius Jones is severely banged up. He spent the night in the hospital as he was experiencing bleeding in his lung. He also has a broken rib. Jones will be out for at least the next two weeks. His replacement was second year RB Justin Forsett. He made the most of his opportunity. Running for a career high 123 yards on 17 carries. He added 5 receptions for 26 yards. Unless you’re stacked at RB pick him up. He is an elusive back that the Seahawks are in need of. Not to mention head coach Jim Mora has taken a strong liking to him.

Atlanta Falcon RB Michael Turner suffered a high ankle sprain. It is being reported that it isn’t a severe sprain. It is really a question of how much time Turner will be missing.

My guess is that Jason Snelling will get the start in week 11. He has been averaging 4.9 yards per carry on the season. Head Coach Mike Smith praised his hard running style.

Jerious Norwood is still listed as questionable with a hip injury.

The team will be signing Aaron Stecker in the coming days. To serve as a #2 or #3 back.

BARGAIN DEALS

The majority of fantasy owners had high expectations for Steve Slaton at the beginning of the 2009 season. He hasn’t exactly lived up to it. His fumble issues combined with Chris Brown’s presence as the goal line back has diminished his value. Now enter Ryan Moats who is coming off a career 3 TD game against Buffalo in week 8. Head coach Gary Kubiak has stated the Texans will use a three-headed backfield moving forward. I’m just not convinced that Ryan Moats will end up taking the majority of reps. Steve Slaton is hands down the most explosive back they have. Why would they want to take the ball out of his hands? Obviously Kubiak has trust issues with him. Unless Slaton’s fumble issues persist he will be the featured back in Houston. He is a risky player to own at the moment but one that has a strong chance of bouncing back. Now is the perfect time to buy him low while owners are down on him.

Brandon Jacobs hasn’t exactly gotten off to a blazing start as most owners anticipated. Derrick Ward’s departure to Tampa Bay was suppose to catapult Jacobs into an elite NFL back that would crush defenses. Let’s not forget that the cold weather will be here soon to help deliver Jacobs stinging blows to opposing tacklers. Tom Coughlin is a run first coach. Jacobs value will increase as it becomes colder. Take advantage of his low value now. Before it’s too late.

The arrival of Jay Cutler in Chicago has stifled the prospect of Matt Forte having a stellar sophomore campaign. His fantasy numbers for the most part have been porous. His 90 yard 2 TD performance versus Cleveland this past weekend bodes well for trade purposes. It is a good time to sell him high if you own him. Matt Forte has two good matchups left this season. Week 13 vs. St. Louis and week 17 vs. Detroit. The bears upcoming schedule:

WEEK 9 Arizona

WEEK 10 @ San Francisco

WEEK 11 Philadelphia

WEEK 12 @ Minnesota

WEEK 13 St. Louis

WEEK 14 Green Bay

WEEK 15 @ Baltimore

WEEK 16 Minnesota

WEEK 17 @Detroit

A waiver wire pickup that is worth noting would be that of 6’5” 225LB Malcolm Floyd. This comes upon the release of Chris Chambers which officially bestows him the starting wideout spot opposite “The Beast” Vincent Jackson. He will be the #2 wide receiver for the Chargers. Which makes him the #3 considering Antonio Gates is the #2 option in that offense. The Chargers passing game will continue to thrive in a horrible division

Times They Are A Changin’ Let’s take a look at the multitude of changes occurring amongst NFL teams after week 7.

In Kansas City you have the “THUG” Larry Johnson twittering his way off of his teams roster. Maybe he hasn’t beaten enough women lately and it’s getting to him? It would be so sweet if NFL teams banded together and blacklisted this ungrateful use to be from the NFL forever. On the upside Haley is making way for the second year back Jamaal Charles. He is a nice pick up as a bye week replacement or stash guy.

Tedd Ginn Jr. is officially back in Bill Parcell’s doghouse. Ginn is to see reduced playing time moving forward. Coach Tony Sparano has said on record that rookie Brian Hartline “merits playing more.” My question is will Brian Hartline be the guy or will Greg Camarillo sneak in there the way he did last year?

Now that Chris Cooley has been ruled out for at least 4 weeks Fred Davis will be taking over his starting role. The second year tight end out of USC played well against the Eagles in week 7 when Cooley left the game. The knock against Davis is that he isn’t a great blocker. So maybe he won’t be playing every down? But he is an excellent receiving tight end. Washington’s offense has looked pathetic at times this year struggling to get the ball down field. A short passing game serves them well.

Brian Westbrook is more than likely to miss week 8. His backup LeSean McCoy is a talented rookie. The Eagles need to run the ball in order for their offense to be effective. They didn’t commit to the run in week 6 and lost uh-hummmm LOST to the Oakland Raiders! I rest my case.

Is Vince Young going to be the Titans starter coming out of their week 7 bye? Owner Bud Adams is supposedly pulling for him to get the start over Collins come week 8. Does this one even make much of a difference? Certainly not fantasy wise unless you planned on starting JaMarcus Russell this week.

Does Al Davis really have that big of a man crush on JaMarcus Russell? I think so! Otherwise Tom Cable would have been fired by now. Let’s take a look at Mr. (I don’t belong in the NFL) Russell’s stats through 7 weeks. He has amassed an amazing 891 passing yards. That would be an average of 127 yards a game! His completion % is a mind blowing 46.3%! He has thrown for a deplorable 2 TD’s and 8…….8 INT’s! I guess there isn’t any need for change here?

Norv Turner hinted Malcolm Floyd will be cutting into Chris Chambers playing time. Malcolm’s big at 6’5” 225 pounds. If he plays enough I believe he’ll put up solid fantasy numbers. The strength of this team is their passing game. I like this guy as a wide receiver 4 or 5.

PRE-EMPTIVE PEARL? The Pittsburgh Steelers backfield didn’t quite work out the way I envisioned it would. Willie Parker did get hurt as expected but the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall has been impressive. Which has given Mewelde Moore limited opportunities.

I’ve come to realize that it doesn’t seem likely that I’ll be running the player personnel of any NFL team in the foreseeable future. Although I do believe I’d have a shot at doing so with the Raiders organization. If I so desired. But who would want to do that to themselves? My career would certainly end up in the graveyard. Then I’d have to seek therapy to deal with my Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome!

Enough of my jackass talk. BenJarvus Green-Ellis. You picking up what I’m putting down people? I would assume no unless you are an avid Patriots fan? He entered the season last on the New England Patriots depth chart. But with injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris his stock has quietly risen. Laurence Maroney should remain the featured back provided he doesn’t get injured or runs the way he so often has in his short career. I’m going to keep a keen eye on BenJarvus Green-Ellis over the course of the next two weeks in particular. Should something happen to Maroney or the Patriots start blowing out their opponents he will get a nice workload. Green-Ellis may have some value patch work wise if you play in a league that consists of 14 or more teams and you have bye week or injury problems. Consider him a desperate pick up at this point but one that may be worth keeping an eye on in the near future.

Brett Favre: The Green Bay Hangover There was a great shot on MNF when Brett Favre walked up to his center and surveyed the Green Bay Defense. Mike Tirico aptly called it surreal. Packer fans were excited and apprehensive prior to the game. Vikings fans, well they were just jacked up.
Favre, Monday Night Football, Green Bay Minnesota. Huge game for Packer fans, Viking fans, and NFL fans in general.

Favre brought enough to win the game. Had a couple of great throws, had enough Adrian Peterson to get him into scoring range, and had enough Jared Allen on the other side of the ball to put Aaron Rodgers on his back 4&1/2 times.

You had a feeling that the Vikings were going to win and maybe win big.
However with all they had going for them did they really play that well? If they want to make their run to the Bowl, they are going to have to step up higher than what we saw last night.
Few things that could have made last night a bit more interesting and thoughts on where the Vikings really are:

Massive penalties against Green Bay hurt the Packers offensive attack
Ryan Grant ran the ball pretty well against that front 4
A really bad call on a great play by Charles Woodson caused a 14 point swing and really was the difference in the game
Peterson put the ball on the ground again

This should have been a blow out. The Green Bay line is awful. They really have no run attack, and they are still figuring out a new defensive scheme. I have to think that if the Vikings are going to go all the way they should be destroying teams like Green Bay, especially at home.

Last weeks' Favre heroics, saved a game for them that they should have lost to an OK 49er team. Favre always gets up for Monday Night games, and you knew he was going to be up for this one. It was an experience for Green Bay fans to move past the legend and move on, and a way for Vikings fans to stick it to their arch rivals I am sure the Vikings fans are buying their Superbowl tickets as I write this!

It was not a playoff game, Green Bay is mediocre at best, and the Vikings have alot of work to do. They seem a long way from beating the Saints, the Giants, or a Philly team with McNabb at the helm.

Enjoy your victory Viking fans, if your real star Adrian Peterson keeps rolling all will be fine, but if defenses can stuff your run game, look out. As the weather gets colder, the schedule gets a little tougher, and you run into games that do not have the emotional attachment for Favre like last night, the interceptions and forced play will rear its ugly head. Don't celebrate too much too early, the hangover could get rough in December.

Week 4 Matchups Below are some players that have favorable matchups for week 4.

Tashard Choice

He’s going against a Denver run defense that has looked good. But remember they faced the anemic Cleveland Browns offense in week 2. Jamal Lewis is OLD and has lost a step. In week 3 they faced off against the unimpressive Oakland Raiders offense that wouldn’t be able run the ball well against a division III school. So the jury is still out on them. If Barber doesn’t play Tashard Choice will provide you with a solid start. Even if Barber ends up playing his carries will probably be limited . Keep an eye on this situation come Sunday morning.

Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw

The Chiefs run defense hasn’t looked good. The Baltimore Ravens ran for 198 yards on them in week 1. The Raiders were able to gain 173 yards on the ground against them in week 2! What else could be more convincing ? The Eagles without Brian Westbrook and Donovan McNabb were capable of netting 93 rushing yards in week 3. Look for the Giants running attack to do just that ATTACK!

Greg Olsen

He is a player I like moving forward. Cutler finally got him involved in the offense last week. Which is a very promising sign for owners. His matchup against the Detroit Lions this week should be a juicy one. Start him if he is on your team . Unless by some bizarre chance you have Witten or Gonzalez on your squad as well.

Kevin Walter

I would imagine Nnamdi Asomugha will be covering Andre Johnson for the majority of the game. Making Kevin Walter a better target for Matt Schaub. He had an impressive first game back last week pulling down 7 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t make the mistake of leaving him on my bench playing in this high powered offense. Look for him to produce more solid numbers in week 4.

Vernon Davis

The Captain looked good last week. If Davis is ever going to live up to his potential it will be this year. He is in the ideal offensive system with the ideal coach to succeed. The 49ers play the St. Louis Rams. What else needs to be said?

Fantasy Pearl

Attempting to pick up key players at crucial times off of the waiver wire in a fourteen team league can be as difficult as trying to set up a meeting with the Pope. Not that I’ve ever tried to do that but you get my point. I’m going to bequeath to you very fortunate readers at this moment in time what I like to call a PEARL.
He goes by the name of Mewelde Moore. In case you aren’t familiar with him he plays running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. A run first team that likes to control the clock and set up the pass. Pittsburgh is one of the NFL’s elite organizations that is run like a well oiled machine from top to bottom. My suggestion to all fantasy owners would to be to at least place him on your scout list.
If you need to pick up another back or replace one of your reserves consider giving that spot to him. He shouldn’t be considered a RB1 or RB2 as of yet. Consider him a stash guy for the moment. One that will eventually pay off. He isn’t a sexy name or runner. But he is highly effective when given a chance to play. Considering history likes to repeat itself Willie Parker will more than likely get injured again this season. Rashard Mendenhall would be his other competition if you want to call it that? All he has carried into week one of the regular season is his unimpressive style of running. Moore’s the seasoned veteran that will sneak his way into the Pittsburgh backfield more and more as the season progresses. Similar to the way Warrick Dunn seemed to do with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Photo Credit:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/ / CC BY 2.0

Football Is God!!! The arrival of the 2009 NFL season to me is analogous to what the second coming of Christ would mean to the religious right. Having cleared that up I’m casting my vote for the Oakland Raiders as the dumbest organization in the NFL. There you go Silver & Black at least you won something this year!
The Raiders recent acquisition Richard Seymour was one of the NFL’s finest defensive lineman a few years ago. Trading a first round pick for him back then would have made sense. Trading your 2011 first round pick for him now isn’t exactly the workings of an NFL road scholar. He’s had an assortment of injuries every season since 2005. Not to mention he turns 30 on the 6th of October.
In 2008 the Redskins traded the Dolphins their 2009 second-round pick and 2010 sixth-round pick for Jason Taylor, who was the 2006 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. That transaction exemplifies good value for both teams. Why didn’t the Raiders work a deal along these lines? Because they’re management people are two chromosomes away from being a potato? Or they’re actually talented football minds but crazy Al pushes all the buttons?
Let’s fast forward to 2010 for a moment. Al Davis is a year older and is well still crazy. Richard Seymour becomes the highest paid defensive player in NFL history ousting Albert Haynesworth of that title. The Patriots trade their second string ball boy for Nnamdi Asomugha. The 2010 dumbest organization award goes to………

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